Bikkuri Project

I thought about this before, but as more and more time goes by, the more I’m starting to suspect the answer might be no. Let’s look at the evidence for and against an Aika comeback.

FOR A COMEBACK

-She showed up and sang in the encore at Ai-chan’s graduation concert, so she’s definitely not out of h!p yet

-She’s in the new Mobekimasu PV (very briefly), and she was in the last single’s PVs too (however, all of these were filmed a while ago) But at least it seems like they’re making an effort to show that she still exists, unlike when Kana went on “hiatus” from C-ute and she didn’t appear in their next single, sitting or no

AGAINST A COMEBACK

-She stopped updating her blog at the end of June. Pretty sure you can update a blog from a sitting position

-Historical precedent. Arihara Kana from h!p, Matsushita Yui from SKE, and Saeki Mika from AKB are all examples of idols who suffered medical issues or injuries, disappeared for a long time but showed up once in a while in special appearances (not Kana), and then eventually announced their graduations because their treatment was taking a lot longer than expected. That brings us to…

-Aika was supposed to be back and fully recovered by September 23rd, after 8 weeks of rest. Cut to September 30th, a week later, and Aika appears at Ai-chan’s graduation in a wheel chair. Clearly, she is nowhere near healed enough to dance if she can’t even walk yet. I believe that originally, they fully intended to bring Aika back (the early evidence points to this. Inclusion in PVs and the concert intro and goods, etc.), but her recovery doesn’t seem to be going well, and who knows how much longer it will take or even if she will ever be able to dance again without risk of re-injuring herself.

-And let’s not forget, she’s not exactly an “essential” member popularity or vocals-wise. Remember when Ai-chan hurt her ankle and she still sang at Yossie’s graduation concert (sitting down)? They tried that with Aika at first (the fan club tour) but then they stopped (MM’s recent tour).

-This ->

“Introducing New 11 Member Morning Musume!” , says the headline. 11. “New” Morning Musume has 11 members, not 12.  Would it have been so hard to get Aika on this cover? I know she already has one of those costumes (unless they gave it to one of the 10th gen girls). She wouldn’t have to dance. It might not mean anything, but it sort of looks like they’ve stopped trying to include her in things, even when she can participate.

I’m not totally convinced either way, but at this point, I can safely say that come the h!p Winter Concerts neither a full comeback nor a tearful announcement followed by a nice little graduation ceremony at the last show would surprise me.

~Celestia~

PS. Looking at that picture, it really hits me how very different current MM looks from the group who’s concerts I attended back when I was in Japan

Like the post title says, I know everyone is already done with this topic, but I felt like it’s significant enough that I need to comment.

So the results come in, and all four S/mileage sub-members have been promoted. Everybody pretty much saw this coming, but questions remain. Did management ever seriously consider kicking any of them out, or was it all a publicity stunt? And most importantly, was it the right choice?

I tried to keep an open mind at first. I was even optimistic. And after careful consideration/ watching the S/mileage live-streaming concert…

I think they made a mistake.

Somehow, it feels like a desperate attempt to stuff as many warm bodies in to the group as possible in hopes that someone would fill the hole left by Saki. The auditions were, as admitted by management (Tsunku I think) “rushed”. There was no application round, little time between the announcement and the actual audition, and only girls who were able to be in Tokyo on the appointed day and showed up were able to audition. The result? A much smaller field of girls to choose from. You can disagree if you’d like, but comparing the S/mileage audition finalists to the Morning Musume audition finalists, I believe that the overall “idol” quality was much lower in the S/mileage pool.  Sure there was Karin, but she is apparently needed elsewhere (TBA). Miyazaki Yuuka was cute, but too old and too tall. Yamaga was a good singer, but just not pretty enough to be an idol (sorry, but she wasn’t). Oda Sakura was too shy, a terrible dancer, and again, not pretty enough. Jang had zero energy and couldn’t remember the song to save her life.

Keep in mind, S/mileage is quite a high quality idol group. They were chosen as the best of the Eggs at a time when there were tons of Eggs running around. All three remaining girls are very pretty, good dancers, and two of them are good singers as well. I’ve come to expect a certain quality from S/mileage, and I believe that at the very least, Nakanishi Kana and Katsuta Rina aren’t up to par.

First, Kana. Didn’t stand out at the audition, and even now I’m not sure why she was picked other than that she had a nice smile and seems like a hard worker. Her singing, and especially her dancing just aren’t nearly good enough. Period. She’s going to drag the group down. This isn’t Morning Musume which, to a certain extent, celebrates having different types of girls. It’s S/mileage. They all got the same hair cut for goodness sake.  And did you ever notice how the S/mileage girls’ costumes are usually very very similar or exactly the same? (the other h!p groups almost always have variety from girl to girl). They’re supposed to kind of “match” when they’re performing.  And Kana does not match.

Next, Rina. Is she talented enough? Sure. She’s probably the most consistent singer of the new members. There’s two problems. 1. Her looks. I don’t think she’s “ugly” as some have said. She’s even cute in some photos, but she’s no where near the three original S/mileage members. And looks are so very important in the idol world. 2. The much bigger problem, in my mind, her personality. Or lack there off. She seems kind of sweet… but that’s about it. S/mileage is known for their energetic, playful personalities. Rina bores me.

I still have hope that Meimi and Akari could become worthy S/mileage members, and really, I think they should have been the only two picked in the end. Both are good dancers, and both are pretty cute (though still probably not as cute as the original S/mileage members). Meimi definitely has a perfect S/mileage personality, and while her vocals are squeaky, that fits in with the group’s style, and she does have a strong voice. Akari also has pretty good vocals, and at least she has an idol persona to distinguish herself (Sporty Spice Girl).

So yeah, the girls would be heart broken, but if they were truly looking to create the strongest overall S/mileage, I think they should have cut Kana and Rina (or never let them in in the first place). It looks like their plan is to use Yuuka’s recent popularity surge (her mixi numbers are climbing like crazy!) to carry the group despite some weak members, and it’ll probably work, but it makes me sad to think of the S/mileage that could have been. All I know is that I like S/mileage a lot less with the new members than I did without them, and it’s not because I hate the idea of adding new girls. It’s because I care about S/mileage and they deserved better than getting stuck with the results of this hasty audition.

~Celestia~

The new “Mobekimasu” PV has come out. I can summarize my thoughts pretty easily.

Song: =)

PV: =(

I really think the song is very nice. It was probably a good move giving it a very different feel from “All for 1 and 1 for All”. I especially like the “ready?” lines. The PV however… sigh. It’s just boring unfortunately. You think they could have put in some effort to make this one a little special.

But what really upsets me about this release is the fresh surge of “Riho-hate” it has caused. That combined with the whining and obnoxious crys of “IT’S NOT FAIR!!”. Well no shit, it’s not fair. When and how did you ever get it in your head that the idol world was fair? Or even that it should be fair?

The two primary arguments are this “Everyone should get an equal amount of focus” and “The most senior members, or group leaders, should get the most focus (and therefore, Riho should be in the back)”. So let’s look at this from a business standpoint.

1. “Everyone should get an equal amount of focus”. How many girls were in that PV? 28 or so? If everyone gets an equal amount of focus, NO ONE gets much focus. Which groups in h!p have the most equal line distribution? S/mileage (when they had 4 members) and C-ute (NOTICE: The line distribution only became closer to even after they lost a couple members). When you have a small group, you can afford to focus on each girl more without taking away from your most marketable members. Not possible if you’ve got 28 girls. The purpose of this Mobekimasu song, as I see it, is to draw some new attention and new fans to h!p. They’re getting to perform it on some shows that h!p rarely appears on lately, and it will likely be viewed by many people who are unfamiliar with h!p. It’s important that they highlight their most marketable members, because they’re the ones most likely to draw in new interest. The girls who are, to put it nicely, less conventionally attractive, charismatic, or talented (though they have their own good points blahblahblah) CANNOT be allowed to take valuable camera time away from the money makers. It’s not “everyone is equally special and valuable let’s all hug” time. It’s a business, and in the idol business, some girls are just more special and valuable than others. You’re kidding yourself if you honestly think otherwise.

2. “The most senior members (or group leaders) should get the most focus”. Wrong for a couple simple reasons. First, the most senior members may not be the most popular/most likely to draw in new fans (see above). Remember, if they decide to push a girl, it’s not a random decision. They have a reason, and they have plenty of experience picking out which girls could be the most popular. Secondly, the older a girl, the less time she likely has left in the idol world. What happens when Risa and Maimi and Saki S. graduate (it will happen eventually), we’re just left with the younger girls, and everyone says “Who?”. For the long-term health of the company, it’s important for h!p to promote their future stars as well (Yuuka, and especially Riho).

I’ve talked about this before, and I know I’ve ruffled some feathers, but I hope I explained it a little more clearly this time. I’m not saying I wouldn’t be happy if Gaki or Chisa had gotten a solo line, but I know why they didn’t, and I’m not going to rage about it.

~Celestia~

PS: Not entirely on topic, but I want to get this off my chest. Many of us (myself included) have grown up in a generation that’s been taught that the world should be fair and “everyone is equally wonderful”. That you should feel proud of yourself and have high self-esteem for merely existing. I believe that mentality has created an entire generation of lazy, entitled, and arrogant kids and young adults. The fact is, in the real world you don’t always get what you deserve, and you don’t always deserve what you get. (though your odds improve with hard work and natural talent)  Point being, people transfer that sense of entitlement over to their favorite idols as well. Japan doesn’t seem to have a problem separating people into winners and losers (no crappy, everybody gets a participation trophy!, we’re all winners!, “competitions” there), and so they have less problem with their idols being separated into winners and losers similarly. Just look at the annual AKB “elections” if you don’t believe me.

Hey guys. I made some new AKB themed “Name That Song” videos, and I needed somewhere to post the answers. Rest assured, I am still primarily a h!p fan, but my youtube channel dabbles in both fandoms.

So, apologies that this isn’t related to h!p. I promise that the next blog post will be back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Team A Video- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b50L5GB3wGI

Highlight Below for Answers

1. Zutto Zutto

2. Haru ga Kuru made

3. Kurumi to Dialogue

4. Dakedo…

5. Party ga Hajimaru yo

6. Switch

7. Senaka kara Dakishimete

8. Tanjoubi no Yoru

9. Anata to Christmas Eve

10. Love Chase

11. Hoshi no Mukougawa

12. Rider

13. JK Nemurihime

14. Namida no Shounan

Team K Video- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAW6y26oLpE

Highlight Below for Answers

1. Shamu Neko

2. Sentakumonotachi

3. Blue Rose

4. Theater Pirates

5. Wagamama na Nagareboshi

6. Boku ni Dekiru Koto

7. Seifuku Resistance

8. Erai Hito ni Naritakunai

9. Cinderella wa Damasarenai

10. Hoshizora no Mistake

11. Return Match

12. Umi wo Watare!

13. Yakusoku yo

14. Maria

Team B Video- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0tDLeCycrs&feature=related

Highlight Below for Answers

1. Love Jump

2. B Stars

3. Junjou Shugi

4. Shiokaze no Shoutaijo

5. Tengoku Yarou

6. Ai no Stripper

7. Tenshi no Shippo

8. Inochi no Tsukaimichi

9. Renai Circus

10. Candy

11. Kobushi no Seigi

12. Hastukoi yo Konnichiwa

13. Haru ga Ichiban Fuku Goro

14. Hissatsu Teleport

Listening to Ai-chan’s graduation concert made me realize a couple things.

1. When did Riho learn to sing like that?? It’s like she found a flaw (okay, but not outstanding vocals) and corrected it in a matter of months by sheer force of will. You’ve got to admit, this girl is very serious about reaching the top of the Morning Musume pyramid as soon as possible (and it looks like she’s only got Reina in her way at this point, though some of these 10th gens may be trouble)

2. Dear God. Does “Tomo” contain more “na”s than Aruiteru?? Try more than double.

Aruiteru-104 “na”s (not counting 22 “la”s)

Tomo- 256 “na”s  256!! That’s got to be a world record number of “na”s. It’s like “The Song That Doesn’t End” except every word is “na”

~Celestia~

I lied about going to bed.

Just had to do a quick translation of part of Tsunku’s blog post where he comments on each of the 10th gen members.

“It was really intended to only add 2 members from this audition, but the level was so high, 4 were added.

Ikubo Haruna- Has a surprising “pure” personality. And her looks (face) are gorgeous. I believe she has the determination to bring her singing to a suitable level. That is why she passed.

Ishida Ayumi- Her singing and dancing were outstanding. Also, her personality is as firm as a stone (a play on the “ishi” in her last name). I believe the history of Morning Musume can be passed on to her from here on out. That is why she passed. (Sounds like he has really high expectations of Ayumi! Based on this, I expect her to pick up some of Ai-chan’s old lines)

Sato Masaki- The level of her dancing and singing is below the other three now, but she has a potential (literally raw ore) that she has yet to realize herself. Also, her skill level rose considerably during the audition. That is why she passed.

Kudo Haruka- She has experience as an egg, and she really loves singing. Also, the “gap” between her face and her husky voice is interesting (basically, she looks tiny and cute, but she has a deep voice, and that’s unusual). I hope that she can help to bring together the 10th generation members and the current members as soon as possible. (I guess because she’s in 10th gen, and she’s worked with current MM in the stage play) That is why she passed. ”

~Celestia~

And after a nail-biting late night of refreshing internet browsers over and over again, we now know the 10th generation members of Morning Musume!

It’s another 4 person gen, and personally, I think those are the best generations. Looking at my predictions, 4 of my top 5 picks got in, so I think I did pretty well! Before we get to the new members themselves, let’s look at the girls who (maybe surprisingly) didn’t make it.

First off, NO SATSUKI!! I feel bad that I was rooting against this girl so hard, but she had all the visual appeal of Aika (actually, Aika is cuter) combined with the abrasive singing voice of Koharu. So happy she’s not there.

Some were hoping for Miyamoto Karin as a surprise addition. I would have been happy with that, but looks like it’s not to be. I really want to know what UFA has planned for Karin, if not MM or S/mileage. They’ve just got to do something with her.

Many, myself included, are a disappointed and a bit mystified by the lack of Sara. I mean, in an audition that’s attempting  to find a replacement for Ai-chan’s vocals, Sara was the best girl for the job. Maybe her looks and personality just aren’t “idoly” enough? Maybe they want to make her a soloist instead? Maybe this heralds the beginning of an age where rather than a couple girls having the majority of the lines, the vocals are shared more evenly so the burden of carrying the song is spread out? (that one’s a long shot). My  best advice to everyone is to get over it, and focus on the new members that we did get.

I’ve commented on them before, but here’s a brief overview with pictures now that they’re official.

Ikubo Haruna

Good- Pretty face, stylish, fills the age gap between Aika and Mizuki, has the sexy “smoldering” look down. I liked what I saw of her personality.

Bad- Probably the weakest singer and dancer of the girls who passed (based on the final audition footage)

Ishida Ayumi

Good- Fierce dancer (Riho has some competition!), polished performer, pretty (though not exceptionally so), can project her voice well and hit the right notes.

Bad- Still not getting a good read on her personality, but that could change. A bit of a shouty tone in her singing. She’s a good singer technically, but she could work on making it prettier.

Sato Masaki

Good- Improved tremendously during the audition, which is an excellent sign. Really cute with her new haircut! Her singing reminds me of Risa when she auditioned (actually, it’s a little better), so I’m excited to see how she further transforms over the years.

Bad- Seems a little quiet or maybe shy, singing is better but definitely not there yet. Struggled to learn the dance (though she did pretty well at her final audition)

Kudo Haruka

Good- Distinctive, lovely voice. Good speaker, so should do well in interviews. Also good at dancing and very cute. Popular with the fans. The whole package!

Bad- Could be bad or good, but she’s the youngest member of Morning Musume EVER, and she may stand out a little because she’s so tiny. Also, I have a small worry that her “husky” voice may be due to vocal nodules. Hope I’m wrong about that though.
Overall, I’m very excited about this generation. Maybe not quite as thrilled as I was with 9th gen, but still very pleased. (MUCH happier than I was about 7th or 8th gen). I can’t wait to see how these girls fit into the group!

It’s 5AM. I’d say that means I should go to bed.

~Celestia~

After watching the last segment of MM audition footage (I didn’t know they had another stage!), I’d like to revise my predictions a bit.

I’m still calling Haruna, Haruka, and Sara as the winners, but based on what I’ve seen today, I’d like to increase Masaki’s chances. She seems to have shown a lot of improvement and looked much cuter with a better hairstyle. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her chosen. Let’s put her up to a 3.

Oh, and clearly Meru and Miyagi Ayumi are out. Whether or not this was their own choice, their odds of getting in were already quite low due to limited screen time in the last episode. Probably they already knew they had dropped (or been dropped) out before airing that footage.

In order of most likely to get in the group to least likely to get in the group:

1.Haruka

2.Haruna

3. Sara

4. Masaki

5. Ayumi

6. Satsuki (Note: if Masaki gets in Satsuki won’t, and visa versa. These two are the same “type” of girl. They won’t both be picked)

7. Hinako

8. Fuuka

~Celestia~

PS. On a personal level, I really hope Satsuki doesn’t get in. I can see her becoming the next Mistui Aika. Anyone else I’d probably be fine with. Just remember Tsunku (or whoever): If you’re going to take a girl who isn’t talented, she MUST be unusually cute or pretty. You made a good call with Mogi, so I hope you learned your lesson with Aika.

After viewing the latest audition footage a few times, I’d like to present my predictions. (Some of this is copied from my post on h!o)

First of all, I’m predicting a 3-5 member generation. There’s conflicting information there though… When the auditions were first announced, a smaller number (2) was indicated, but during the audition footage Tsunku was considering a much larger number, so it will be interesting to see how many we get. I’m leaning towards 3 though.  Also, it’s my opinion that Tsunku makes recommendations about who gets in the group, but it’s the agency higher-ups who have the final say. So, I think his opinion does matter… but it’s not everything.

Finally, I’m working under the assumption that the winners of the audition have already been chosen, and were already chosen by the time this footage aired, so whoever edited it made sure the girls who won were at least featured a little.

Each girl has been given a score out of 5.

5= Best chance of getting in. 1=Worst chance of getting in.

Kudo Haruka- Featured a lot in the audition, and seems to be very determined. Cute, and strong in all necessary areas, including personality. The only reason I could see her not getting in is if there are already other plans for her, and they are just using this audition to get her name and face out there. 5

Ikubo Haruna- Got a decent amount of screen time. Pretty, with lots of wota-appeal. 4

Satou Masaki- Good screen-time, but only because she was failing so badly at everything. Forgot both the lyrics AND the tune of the song, and generally seemed to not try hard enough.  2

Tashima Meru- Little screen-time. Too bad, because I kind of like her.  At least Natsu sensei seemed impressed with her speech. 1.5

Oogami Hinako- Again, just not shown much, though she did get a bit of attention for her dancing, and Tsunku liked her singing. 2.5

Miyagi Ayumi- Not featured AT ALL. 1

Miwa Satsuki- Good screen-time, but again, only because she was failing so badly. Still, she seemed to be trying pretty hard, and that is something they look for. 2.5 (decent odds if a large number of girls are picked, unlikely if it’s only a couple)

Ishida Ayumi- Featured a lot, and has the looks and the talent, but there seem to be some major problems in the personality department. She may be too polished, and Tsunku says it’s hard to tell what she’s really like. Comes off a bit fake? 3 (Looks like her odds are great, but my gut feeling is that it’ll be a “no”, so I stuck her in the middle)

Tanaka Fuuka- The other unfortunate girl who was not featured AT ALL. 1

Murakami Sara- Lots of screen-time. Tsunku said he’s looking for good singers since Ai-chan’s leaving, and she has the most natural singing talent. 5 (but the Japanese fans will be slow to warm up to her)

So, my prediction will officially stand at Haruka and Sara if there’s two, add Haruna if there’s three. If there are four, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Karin thrown in. In fact, I’ll be surprised if there isn’t some sort of “surprise”. (only 1 girl, more than 4 girls, adding someone not in the camp, etc).

~Celestia~

Something pretty interesting has occurred to me lately.  It’s kind of an expansion of a theory that I’ve discussed recently on the Hello! Online forums, but what it basically boils down to is this:

I think I know how overwhelmingly popular groups such as Arashi and AKB48 (currently) can exist in Japan.

Keep in mind that every word I’m typing here is a generalization, and I am well aware that it does not apply to everyone. I’m just looking at general trends.

It comes down to what I think is a very important difference between American (possibly European too, but I can’t really speak for Europe) and Japanese fans. It all started with a debate about 10th gen and Sayashi Riho. People were complaining that everyone loved the talented little Riho at first, but then, once she rose to the top of the 9th gen heap, many turned on her.

“I used to love Riho, but now she’s “hogging the solo lines” (or “being pushed in our faces”) and so I don’t like her anymore.”

Logically, this doesn’t really make sense. Why should we dislike a girl for becoming popular? Whether her push to the front is a response to her popularity (and I think it is. She’s been rapidly gaining attention from the moment she appeared in auditions) or her popularity is a result of her push to the front, it can’t be denied that she is the most popular of the 9th gen with the Japanese fans, and that she has earned herself haters among the American fans as a result.

We can see this same pattern happening with the “front” members of any group really. Maeda Atsuko is another good example of a “pushed” girl the American fans love to hate. Just being in the front seems to immediately cause haters. In the mean time, members like my own favorite Niigaki Risa, who never seem to have quite enough spotlight, are often extremely popular with the foreign fans. That’s not to say that every “popular” girl will be hated by foreign fans and every “unpopular” girl will be loved, but if you look at the general trends, the girls who are the most popular in Japan are often relatively less popular in America, and the girls who are least popular in Japan are often very popular in America.

Now, one could argue that this comes down to different personality types being attractive in Japan as compared to America, and there is probably some truth to that, but it’s far from the whole picture. Riho’s personality has not changed dramatically, but American fans turned on her just the same once she started becoming a front girl, while Japanese fans embraced her with open arms. The key difference is this:

Americans have an almost pathological need to root for the underdog, while Japanese have a need to be part of the larger group.

These are deeply embedded cultural values I’m talking about here. Ameicans love the girl who has to fight her way up from the bottom, despite all the obstacles that seem to be in her way. We like to find that girl who’s not appreciated and cheer for her when “no one else” will. (I would say this is true whether or not she “deserves” it). One reason we don’t like the front girl is that she’s “stealing” the spotlight from our poor, unappreciated, underdog. We also don’t want to pick the girl who “everyone else” likes as our favorite because that’s so… cliche or conformist.  Japanese believe that if everyone else loves the girl, there’s a good reason. The group knows better than the individual, and if she’s so popular, she must be pretty special and worthy of consideration. Conversely, if she’s not very popular, she’s probably not so great. Conformist? That’s a compliment!

And THAT is how last year in Japan two groups swept the entire top 10 Oricon singles. How Arashi and AKB probably have over 10 TV shows and dozens of advertising campaigns between them this year (i’ve lost count). In America, if a group or singer reaches a certain degree of popularity, people automatically begin to dislike them because “they’re so mainstream”. It becomes uncool to like that particular group. A natural leveling off and even decline of popularity occurs. In Japan, popularity can continue to increase exponentially. More people liking a group makes more people become fans of that group, no matter how “mainstream” they become. Mainstream is a good thing in Japan.  It’s a positive feedback loop! Popularity can just keep going up and up, until they essentially run out of people to become fans or something better comes along. When I was in Japan I could hardly find a person who didn’t at least casually like Arashi. You would never find that in America with a band or singer that is still in the media forefront. (we’re not talking nostalgia here, because that’s another issue)

Eventually, the people will move on to the next big thing and AKB and Arashi will suffer a gradual decline in popularity, most likely still holding on to a sizable contingent of fans for a good long time. This will happen not because they got too popular, but because casual fans are fickle. Something else will start rising in popularity and they will happily jump aboard the bandwagon. Meanwhile, the American fans will continue to bemoan the fact that our favorite groups and members will always be pushed away in the corner, and they deserve to be in the front, totally unaware that if they were to become very popular for any extended period of time, we would probably like those groups and group members less for it.

Dang… I want to write a thesis on this or something,

~Celestia~